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THE year 1740 opened under no favourable auspices for Walpole, whether as regarding the peace of Europe or the stability of his administration in England. Abroad, the war with Spain, however unwillingly begun, must now be vigorously urged; and there was this further evil attending it, that a rupture with France would almost inevitably follow. This was a consequence that Sir Robert had always foreseen and feared; it had been one of his main motives for peace, although of too delicate a nature for him to allege in debate. The monarchs of Spain and of France, bound together by close ties of kindred, always thought themselves natural allies, and the "Family Compact" existed in their minds long before it was concluded as a treaty or called by that name. Under the Regency of Orleans, indeed, different maxims prevailed, the Regent having good reason to consider the King of Spain not as a kinsman but as a rival. But under Fleury the old system returned in full force: he had used every endeavour to avert a war between the Courts of London and Madrid; when, however, that war actually ensued, he became more and more estranged

from his English allies. The despatches of that period display the growing coldness, and point to the probable result. In the event, as I shall hereafter show, the war between England and Spain became grafted into that which arose throughout Europe on the death of the Emperor Charles the Sixth; but had even that event not occurred, there seems every reason to believe that France would ere long have sided with Spain. This was the very evil which had been apprehended from the enthronement of the House of Bourbon in Spain: such was the very system against which Somers had negotiated and Marlborough fought; and it is remarkable, that the same events should fully justify at once both the warlike counsels of Godolphin and the pacific policy of Walpole.

At home the unpopularity of the Minister was gathering in the distance like a dark cloud on the horizon, ere long to burst in thunder on his head. He soon found that he had not bettered his condition by yielding to the foolish cry for war. Unjust clamours are not to be silenced by weak or wicked compliance; instead of appeasing their violence it only alters their direction. All the alleged misdeeds of Walpole-the Gin Act — the Play House Bill the Excise Scheme - the corruption of Parliament, - the "unparalleled ruin" of the country, (for present distress is always called "unparalleled ") were now urged against him in combined array. He was held forth as the sole cause of national grievances, or rather as the greatest grievance in himself. Nay, more, it is certain that had Sir Robert even declared war against all Europe at this time, he could not have freed himself from the disgraceful imputation of being a friend of peace; it would still have been thought that he was forced forward against his will, and that he would seize the first opportunity of indulging his base love of public quiet and prosperity. Such was the injustice of the moment; and there had been for some time petty riots and risings, none of importance in itself, but in their aggregate denoting and augmenting the ferment of the people.

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*See for example Boyer's Polit. State, vol. lvi. p. 506. Lady Mary Wortley observes, "Our mobs grow very horrible: here are a vast "number of legs and arms that only want a head to make a very "formidable body." (Letters, vol. ii. p. 212. ed. 1837.)

1740.

RETURN OF THE SECEDERS.

This ferment of the people gave of course strength and spirit to the Opposition in Parliament. The Seceders having felt the error of their course, eagerly seized the declaration of war as a pretext to change it. On the meeting of Parliament in November 1739, no sooner had the Address been moved and seconded, than Pulteney rose, in the name of the rest, to explain their altered views. He began by defending them for their Secession. "This step," he said, "however it has hitherto been cen"sured, will, I hope, for the future be treated in a dif"ferent manner, for it is fully justified by the declaration "of war, so universally approved, that any further vindi"cation will be superfluous. There is not an assertion "maintained in it, that was not almost in the same words "insisted upon by those who opposed the Convention. "Since that time there has not one event happened that 66 was not then foreseen and foretold. But give me leave "to say, Sir, that though the treatment which we have "since received from the Court of Spain may have swelled "the account, yet it has furnished us with no new reasons "for declaring war; the same provocations have only "been repeated, and nothing but longer patience has "added to the justice of our cause. The same violation

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"of treaties, the same instances of injustice and barbarity, "the same disregard to the Law of Nations, which are "laid down in this declaration, were then too flagrant to "be denied and too contemptuous to be borne. It "is therefore evident that if the war be necessary now, "it was necessary before the Convention. Of this necessity, the gentlemen known, however improperly, by the 66 name of Seceders, were then fully convinced. They 66 saw instead of that ardour of resentment and zeal for "the honour of Britain, which such indignities ought to "have produced, nothing but meanness, tameness, and “submission, to such conduct they could give no "sanction; they saw that all opposition was ineffectual, "and that their presence was only made use of, that what was already determined might be ratified by the appearance of a fair debate. They therefore seceded.... "The state of affairs is now changed; the measures of "the Ministry are altered; and the same regard for the "honour and welfare of their country that determined

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