Causality in Macroeconomics

Etukansi
Cambridge University Press, 13.8.2001 - 311 sivua
Causality in Macroeconomics examines causality while taking macroeconomics seriously. A pragmatic and realistic philosophy is joined to a macroeconomic foundation that refines Herbert Simon's well-known work on causal order to make a case for a structural approach to causality. The structural approach is used to understand modern rational expectations models, regime switching models, Granger causality, vector autoregressions, the Lucas critique, and concept exogeneity. Techniques of causal inference based on patterns of stability and instability in the face of identified regime changes are developed and illustrated in two empirical case studies.
 

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The Problem of Causality in Macroeconomics
1
11 The Legacy of David Hume
2
Accounting for Causes Economically
8
Causal Issues
12
12 Probabilistic Causality in the Humean Tradition
13
13 The Primacy of Structure
22
Making Structures Explicit
23
14 Taking Macroeconomics Seriously
26
LeRoy
170
73 Exogeneity and Causality
174
Concepts of Exogeneity
175
The Demand for Money with Extrapolative Expectations
178
The Demand for Money with Rational Expectations
180
74 The Lucas Critique and Causality
182
Inferring Causal Direction
191
81 A Simple Linear Example
192

The Notion of Causal Structure
29
22 Causal Order
34
23 Pragmatics
41
24 The Causal Field
43
25 Probabilistic Causality
49
26 Robustness and Invariance
54
27 Causal Structure
59
Representing Causal Structure
60
31 A SetTheoretic Formalization of Causal Structure
61
32 Examples of Causally Ordered Structures
63
A Rational Expectations Model
64
A RegimeSwitching Model
66
Articulating Causal Structure
69
41 Types and Tokens
70
42 Variables or Tropes?
81
43 Singular Cause and Concrete Structures
87
44 Causality and Laws
100
The Reality of Macroeconomic Structures
108
51 The Program of Microfoundations
109
52 Is Macroeconomics Ontologically Problematic?
112
53 The Supervenience of Macroeconomics on Microeconomic
119
54 Two Arguments for the Reality of Macroeconomics
124
55 Macroeconomic Structures
128
Causality and Macroeconomic Constraints
129
62 Temporal Order
131
1 Frequency of Observation
134
2 Hidden Variables and Temporal Reversal
136
3 Longrun versus Shortrun Causality
138
63 Marks and Interventions
140
Macroeconometrics and Causality
144
72 Three Current Econometric Approaches to Causality
149
Granger
150
Glymour Scheines Spirtes and Kelly
155
82 Nonlinear Structures
201
A Spending Intervention without CrossEquation Restrictions
203
A Spending Intervention with CrossEquation Restrictions
204
A Tax Intervention with or without CrossEquation Restrictions
210
83 Identifying Interventions
213
Chow Tests
217
Plots of Recursive Regression Coefficients
219
84 Linear Methods in the Context of Endogenous Regime Switching
220
Calibration and MonteCarlo Design
225
Simulation
226
Case Study I The Causal Direction between Taxes and Government Spending in the Postwar Period
227
A DoubleSided CostBenefit Model
228
92 A Chronology of the Tax and Spending Processes
229
93 Evidence
231
Characterization of Distributions
232
Observational Equivalence in Practice
236
OutofSample Projections
238
94 Interpretation
245
95 Conclusion
246
Sources and Definitions
248
Case Study II The Causal Direction between Money and Prices
250
102 Stable and Unstable Periods
251
103 Baseline Regressions
253
Reaction Function or Causal Relation?
260
105 OutofSample
261
1966319854
267
Patterns of Stability
274
106 Does Currency Cause Prices?
276
Sources and Definitions
278
Causality in Macroeconomics
283
Bibliography
287
Index
305
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Causality in Macroeconomics
Kevin D. Hoover
Esikatselu ei käytettävissä - 2001

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account of causality aggregates analysis argues aspirin birdie Cartwright 1989 causal direction causal field causal inference Causal Markov Condition causal order causal relations causal relationship causal structure causes Chapter Chow statistics Chow test coefficient correlation counterfactual econometric econometricians economic economists effect equation error bands error terms estimated example exogenous expenditure Federal Reserve Federal Reserve System Figure Friedman Glymour Granger Granger-causality Hausman Hendry Hoover Hume Hume's hypothesis implies independent instantiations interest rates interventions INUS condition invariance Kevin D LeRoy LeRoy's linear Lucas Lucas critique macroeconomics marginal microfoundations monetarism monetary money regressions nomic notion observation ontological P₁ parameters particular philosophical price level price regressions probabilistic account probability distribution problem projection random rational expectations recursive Recursive Residuals regime RPOF sample Section stable standard error standard error bands structural account structural break supervenience Table theory tion token-level tokens tranquil period type-level causal V₁ variables

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OtsikkoCausality in Macroeconomics
Causality in Macroeconomics, Kevin D. Hoover
KirjoittajaKevin D. Hoover
Painoskuvitettu
KustantajaCambridge University Press, 2001
ISBN0521002885, 9780521002882
Pituus311 sivua
  
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