departure of the French garrisons from the Papal States was anticipated with concern by all who knew how greatly the future of the new Italian Kingdom depends upon its power to maintain the authority of the laws over populations long corrupted by tyranny, and who understood how certain it was that the Mazzinists and the Garibaldians, the "party of action," as they style themselves, would endeavor to raise the Roman people in a turbulent revolution about the heels of the retiring protec tors of the Papacy. In Germany the folly of the Emperor Francis Joseph in insisting upon an attempt to perpetuate the absolute supremacy of German Austria over the powerful Sclavonic and Magyar races, in which the strength of his empire now resides, gave abundant reasons to fear a complete break-up of the ancient Austrian monarchy, bringing with it inevitably not only a renewal of the recent war in Germany, but struggles also of a wider sweep and of more dangerous possibilities along the lower Danube, and upon the southwestern frontiers of the Russian Empire. At the same time there were many evidences visible of a growing jealousy between the French and the Western German population, evidences the menace of which was not mitigated by the haughty, almost defian, attitude of the Prussian Government towards the Emperor Napoleon III.

6:

In France the failure of the Mexican expedition, and the extraordinary success of the policy of Count Bismarck, had shaken the prestige of the Emperor and emboldened the malcontents of the upper and middle classes to assume a position of open hostility to Ilis Majesty's grand and darling scheme for a military reorganization of France on the Prussian model. And in England itself, ordinarily the type of domestic order and of political stability, strange mutterings were audible. A movement for an extension of the franchise, and of the popular representation in Parliament, had gradually grown under the manipulation of a knot of experienced political agitators into the likeness of an incipient revolution. So prominent a man as Mr. John Bright had not hesitated openly to recommend a pressure upon Parliament" in the form of gigantic popular demonstrations of the physical force of the disfranchised classes. Excesses committed in London, in Sheffield, and in other farge towns, had been interpreted in the light of these recommendations of the man who is universally recognized as the ablest living leader of the extreme Radical party in English politics. The govern ment of Lord Derby, relying upon the instinctive indignation with which the English people have always responded to any threat of coercion, whether from above or from below, from a Charles I., or a Jack Cade, had taken high and resolute ground, and was eviden ly determined to avail itself of the incautious language and conduct of the extreme Radicals, for the purpose of hurling down the moderate Whigs effectually, and dividing Parliament between the two camps of Bright and of Disraeli.

cer

In this general condition of the older Continent there was was tainly much to justify the anxiety with which statesmen and journalists looked forward to the year now begun. To Americans this aspect of affairs was made more than usually interesting by the appointment of the month of April, 1867, as the opening season of the World's Fair at Paris.

It has been. by common consent anticipated that this would

prove to be the most superb exhibition ever made of the wealth, the resources and the progress of humanity in modern times. Paris, at all times the most attractive of cities, has gained a new and peculiar charm from this anticipation. And it is reasonably enough expected that the exodus of Americans to Europe during the coming spring and summer will far exceed anything which has been seen in the past. The Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, Mr. Harrington, now in Europe, estimates the number of Americans actually in Europe to day at nearly thirty thousand, and puts down the influx thither for 1867 at more than one hundred and fifty thousand. To all of these intending travelers, therefore, it naturally was, and is, a question of moment whether the festivities of April at Paris are or are not likely to be overcast, or perhaps even wholly arrested, by the outbreak of the flames of war or of revolution in one or another important region of the vast area which, as we have seen, the year 1866 left so ominously volcanic and smoking. Four weeks of the year 1867 have so seriously modified the face of matters that this question may already be answered without rashness, and in the negative.

In England, the mistakes of the party of John Bright, and the cleverness with which the Conservatives have availed themselves of these mistakes, are already bearing their fruit. Such is the strength of the reaction induced by the foolish Radical demonstrations of the Autumn of 1866, that Lord Derby's government have announced their intention to leave the question of Parliamentary reform in the hands of the Opposition, reserving to themselves the advantage of controlling in the final vote that powerful section of the Liberals who, while they will hardly be able to prevent Mr. Bright from giving shape to any opposi tion measure of reform, will be certain to throw their whole weight against the adoptionas law of any measure which Mr. Bright shall have shaped. The English Radicals who, having loaded themselves most unnecessarily with the odium of the Fenian movement in Ireland, have suffered from its failure, and the revolutionary party in Great Britain, may be truly said to be more powerless at this moment for good or for evil than at any time since the Chartist demonstrations of 1848.

In France, the Emperor Napoleon, by a bold and unexpected stroke of policy, has disarmed his domestic antagonists, and enormously increased his force in dealing with foreign diplomacies. He has abolished the executive censorship of the Press, and established a more complete freedom of the Parliamentary tribune than existed in the time of the Orleans monarchy. These measures are pretty clearly preliminary to an open appeal to the masses of the French people in behalf of that grand reorganization of the French army upon which the bourgeoisie have already pronounced unfavorably. No Frenchman in our day has shown such a thorough knowledge of the real temper and feelings of the French peasantry as the Emperor Napoleon. No man is more fully aware than he of the overbalancing power of this class in France, and no man has so much reason as he to know that with this class the glory and the preponderance of France in Europe are the deepest of political passions and the most effective of political levers. Freedom of the press and of the tribune will bring it clearly home to the peasantry of France and to the working classes in the great towns, who

on these points are at one with the peasantry, that the aggrandizement of Prussia threatens the preponderance of France in the west, and that the increasing complications of the Eastern question may at any moment compel France to encounter a formidable alliance in the Levant. This being once made plain to the people of France, the Emperor can propose no military law so stringent and sweeping that it will not be supported by the vast majority of Frenchmen with enthusiasm. Whatever may be the ultimate peril to Europe involved in this fresh hold of the Napoleonic dynasty upon France, it must at least be regarded as a new guarantee of quiet for the immediate future. The increased strength of France is a possible prospective menace to Prussia and to Russia, but for that very reason it is pretty sure to impose a policy of moderation upon those powers for the present.

This influence will be fortified, in the case of by Prussia, the very great trouble which exists in the newly arranged States of Germany. The Prussian military system is a source of great vexation to the people of those States, and the authorities appointed by King William have done more to heighten than to diminish the ill feeling caused by the change of system.

So far as concerns Russia, the prompt acquiescence of the Turkish Government in the demands of Servia has deprived the Greek insurrections in Turkey for the present of their chief importance. No movement of the Christians in Turkey can promise much in which Servia does not lead; and as Servia has now gained all she has asked for, and is more disposed to await the dismemberment of Austria for her of chances development than to invite a Russian interference in Turkey, which would redound rather to the advantage of the Greeks than of the Servians or their neighbors of Moldo-Wallachia, the probabilities are that the efforts of the Great Western Powers to appease the ferment in the East will be successful for the time being.

We may sum up our view of the present position of Europe, therefore, briefly thus: The year 1866 has bequeathed to us a great number of unsettled and angry questions, to which the first weeksof 1867 have added the threatening of a revolutionary outbreak in Spain. But the first weeks of 1867 have thrown into the scale in favor of peace a notable consolidation of the power of the Conservative Ministry in England, and a great and real advance in the hold of Napoleon III. upon France, and through France upon the springs of Continental action. With this advantage on the side of the Western Powers, whose present policy is the maintenance of peace at almost any price, we have little doubt that peace will be maintained; and that 1867 will be the year of travail rather than of birth for the great changes which the future is preparing in the map of Europe.

THE FUTURE OF COTTON.

The cotton yield for the current year is still a matter of considerable uncertainty. It must, however, be acknowledged that the tenor of evidence upon the question favors the estimates of the low crop party. It appears that almost every condition affecting the yield adversely has been realized. The drought and the rains, the worm and the frost, have com bined to limit the supply; and, in some sections, loss has been incurred from the disinclination of the laborers to work. Reports are, consequently, received, from almost every point, of disappointment at the result of "picking out." Even those planters who, in October, were sanguine, find the result of their own crop much below their anticipations, while all who estimated the yield at or exceeding two millions of bales now find it necessary to reduce their estimates; and those who from the first have predicted a light supply, have still further moderated their small expectations. This change of estimates is altogether too general to be treated lightly.

During the first four months of the cotton year, i. e. from Sept. 1 to Jan. 1, the receipts from the interior were, in round numbers, 735,000 bales. During the eight years next preceding the war the receipts for the four months ending January 1st constituted, on an average, about forty per cent. of the total average crop. Supposing this ratio of receipts to have been maintained for the first four months of the current cotton year, it would follow that a total crop of about 1,825,000 bales may be anticipated. It is claimed, however, that during the present year the early receipts are in excess of the usual rates. The impoverished condition of the planters and other cotton growers, it is argued, has imposed upon them an urgent necessity for forwarding their crop to the market as early as possible. The credit facilities of denied former years are now them; and money has to be provided to pay wages and feed the laborers. On the other hand, it is true that the embarrassing operation of the cotton tax tended at first to impede the movement of the crop to the ports; but this obstruction was SO promptly remedied that this can be scarcely considered as countervailing the pressure to realize growing out of the causes indicated. How far the movement up to January 1st may have varied, on these accounts, from the rates of ordinary years, it must be left for the reader to estimate. About a month ago two leading cotton firms of this city telegraphed to sixteen of their agents at the cotton ports for their opinion as to what proportion of the whole crop had then been received. Their replies, dated Dec. 24th to 28th, estimated the proportion variously at from one-third to two-thirds; the ratio at New Orleans and Mobile being stated at fully one-half. If these estimates were accepted, it would follow that a crop of less than 1,500,000 bales is to be anticipated; but, of course, they are mere opinions; and yet they probably indicate the views of the leading planters in those sections of the South. In this market the range of moderate opinion upon the total yield may be taken, we think, as between 1,500,000 and 1,800,000 hales.

In estimating the bearing of these probabilities of a reduced supply upon the value of raw cotton, it is necessary, also, to take into account

the prospects of the supply Great Britain is likely to draw from other countries than the United States. With reference to the chief sources of Eastern production, there appears to be a general disposition to moderate the estimates entertained a few weeks ago. The grounds of this change of opinion in England are thus alluded to by our London correspondent, under date of Jan 5:

With regard to the cotton trade, it may be observed that although spinners may purchase with extreme caution, the present range of prices must at least be maintained, owing to the small quantities of the staple afloat, and the prospect, therefore, of a small importation for some weeks to come. So far as is at present ascertained, the supply of East Indian cotton afloat is under 100,000 bales, while at this date in 1866 the quantity known to be on passage to Europe was nearly 290,000 bales; and with regard to America, it appears that only $2,000 bales are on passage, against 60,000 bales in 1866. These figures are certainly in favor of continued firmness in the cotton trade; but, as successive advices from India report steadily increasing shipments of cotton to Europe, spinners will evidently continue to operate cautiously in concluding sales. At latest date, viz., Dec. 21, the shipments of cotton from Bombay were progressing at the rate of about 16,000 bales per week, being a considerable increase as compared with the previous weeks; and, as the season for new cotton had just been commenced, there seems to be every probability that with the continuance of favorable advices from Liverpool the exports from Bombay will be on a much more extensive scale. These advices, we know, have been favorable to growers of cotton in India; hence there can be but little doubt as to the nature of our future advices from the East. In the course of a month or six weeks we shall most pr bably ob serve a large increase in the quantity of East Indian cotton afloat. In Egypt the crop of cotton has certainly been productive of disappointment. We were led to anticipa e a crop of 600,000 bales, but subsequent advices have reduced the estimate to 400,000, and finally to 300,000 bales. That the crop is by no means so extensive as was announced at the commencement of the season may be considered certain; but in the present position of the cotton trade, statistics relating to the probable production of cotton in any country should be well authenticated before full reliance is placed upon their correctress. It may, however, be looked upon as certain that the crop of cotton in Egypt is superior to last year, although there is so considerable falling off from the statements made at the opening of the season, with regard both to the extent and quality of the crop. Our latest advices from Alexandria report fair shipments of produce from that port since November 1, but as compared with 1864 there is a falling off of about 7,000 bales.

These combined considerations require a material curtailment of esti mates of the total supply from all sources entertained two or three months ago. The reduction may be roughly represented by 250,000 bales for the United States, 250,000 for India, 250,000 for Egypt, and 50,000 for Brazil, making a total curtailment of original estimates amounting to 800,000 bales. These aspects of the supply have produced a strong disposition among holders of cotton to stand firmly for higher prices; a feeling not shaken by the movement among domestic manufacturers for further curtailing their production of goods.

Surveying the general condition of the world's markets, it would seem reasonable to expect an active demand for cotton goods during the present

year.

The political status of Germany is settled, without, at least, any prospect of immediate disturbance, and with less commercial derangement than might have been expected; and the Eastern question which, until recently, loomed darkly in the horizon, presents no features likely to disturb the larger markets for cotton manufactures. The tone of business in Manchester is assuming a more hopeful aspect, and spinners do not show any reluctance to buy cotton freely at current prices.