The fuccefs of the Ruffian arms in the latter part of the campaign, feems to put it in the power of the court of Petersburg, either to profecute the war to great advantage, or nearly to prescribe the terms of peace. In the former cafe, the large frontier provinces of Moldavia and Walachia, which feem now to be added to its dominion, as well by the inclination of the inhabitants as by conqueft, will be of infinite use. Without entering into the profpects that may thereby be opened to the Ruffians, of extending their conquefts on the other fide of the Danube, it feems at leaft to be in their power to make themselves mafters of the lower course of that river, which, if they mean to hold this conqueft, will be a natural barrier and defence to thefe provinces.

In this fituation the intercourfe between Turky and Crim Tartary is in a manner deftroyed. By land it feems wholly interrupted; and the communication by the Black Sea is tedious and dangerous, at leaft in the weak state of naval ftrength and naval refources among the Turks. In the mean time the Ruffians might reduce the city of Bender, and afterwards employ the greater part of their forces, in chaftifing the Tartars, and in totally crushing the remainder of the Polish confederates.

While the Porte is thus freightned on the fide of Europe, measures are taken on that of Afia, which will ferve further to diftract its attention, and to divide its forces. Ruffian troops fent into Georgia, and the infurrection they have ex

cited in that country, would feem fufficient to anfwer thefe purposes. Endeavours are however used to raife a more formidable enemy. A Tartar named Kerim Kan, is faid to have obtained the principal command in Perfia, and to have united at length that country, fo long and fo miferably harraffed and diftracted. Perfia, when at peace within itself, has always been a formidable neighbour to the Turks. The politics of Ruffia have stirred up Kerim Kan, to lay claim to fome of the frontier provinces, which have been formerly difputed between the two empires. If we may give entire credit to this report, it is not difficult to appreciate the dangers which menace that extended, proud, ferocious, ignorant, and feeble nation. If the empress of Ruffia finds no evocation from disturbances at home, or is not appeafed by fpeedy and reafonable conceffions from abroad, the Turkish empire may at length fall by the hands of a woman.

That great and enterprifing woman, has not however confined her views merely to the operations of a land war: they are much more extensive; and to the astonishment of Europe, from the bottom of the Baltic, a Ruffian fleet is iffued to shake the remoteft parts of the Mediterranean; to excite and fupport the infurrections of the Greek Chriftians, and to leave nothing in any part of the vast empire of encmies, free from alarm and confufion. This naval expedition of Ruffia, ftands particularly distinguished amongst the events of this year, and is indeed a remarkable æra in naval history.

This however has been thought a rafh and dangerous experiment.

It

It has been faid, that the knowledge in their profeffion, which the Ruffian failors could acquire, by their short fummer navigations in the gulphs of Finland and Bothnia, was not to be fuppofed equal to the dangers which they muft encounter, in unknown and boisterous feas. The condition in which both fhips and men arrived in England, the length of time they took in making their voyage, and the accidents they met with, notwithftanding the affiftance of fome Englifh officers and pilots, feemed ftrongly to countenance this opinion. It was alfo faid, that the fea of the Archipelago, fo famous for its numberless iflands, fhoals and currents, as well as for its fudden, shifting, and violent winds, feemed to be an ill chofen and perilous school of probation.

The attempt, however, is great, bold and manly; and it should be obferved, that neither great defigns are to be defined, nor great fucceffes to be obtained by the precife rules of vulgar calculation.

Nor is this to be regarded as a matter totally novel, and which only sprung up from the prefent contingency. A defign of a fimilar nature, or which at least led to the fame end, has been for many years in contemplation, and a favourite object at the court of Peterf burg. Indeed it is not to be imagined, that Peter the Great and his fucceffors, would have built fuch a number of vaft ships, only to have them dragged about once a year between the rocks and fhoals of the Baltic.

It is now known, that the great point which Ruffia had in view, in the war of the year 1736, againft the Turks, was to gain a port and

free right of trade upon the Black fea, with liberty for her fhips to pafs through the Dardanelles, in their way to and from the Archipelago and Mediterranean. The great fuccefs of the Turks against the late emperor, (who was then the Ruffian ally), and the dishonourable peace which they forced him into, fruftrated the fcheme for that time; but there can be no reafon to doubt that it had its full effect in producing the prefent war. How far its fuccefs, and the establishment of a new naval power in thofe feas, may be confiftent with the intereft of the other European ftates, it is not our business here to difcufs; however, it may be eafily feen, that if it took place in its fullest extent, Ruffia muit become one of the greatest maritime powers in the world.

A long war is not however at prefent defirable to Ruffia. Thofe who are acquainted with the ftate of population in that vaft empire know, that the want of inhabitants, is its great and principal want. If we may credit fome late French writers, the race of man is in danger of becoming extinct in its northern provinces, from internal, and perhaps irremediable causes. The lofs of men which, notwithstanding its fuccefs, it has already fuffered in the field during the progrefs of this short war, must have been very great. We know that the two great generals, Lacy and Munich, loft above half their armies in two fucceffive fummer campaigns against the Tartars only, though they had no enemy that could engage them in the field; and that war coft Ruffia confiderably more than 100,000 men. The lofs fuftained this year by the ra [22]

vages

vages of the Tartars, may probably equal if not exceed that in the field; befides their ruining the infant colony of New Servia, and fpoiling the noble province of the Ukraine; a province by much the fineft and most fertile that Ruffia is poffeft of, the cultivation of which has always been regarded as an object of the greatest importance.

These are loffes that touch Ruffia in the most fenfible and tender part. It may also be obferved, that though this empire, from the cheapness of provifions, and the eafy method of providing for the troops, can fupport an infinite number of them at home; yet that the state of its finances is but ill adapted to the vaft expences which attend the employing of fleets and armies at a great distance. For thefe and many other reafons, particularly the jealoufy of the other European powers, it is not probable that Ruffia will be too implacable in its profecution of the war, nor that it will refufe advantageous, though at the fame time equitable terms of peace, when they are propofed.

The affairs of the Turkifh empire, are at present in a very critical fituation. Founded by the fword, and established totally upon military principles, nothing lefs than a continued exercife in war, and the confequent obfervance of a fevere difcipline, could preferve it in its original vigour. The late long reft of thirty years, was not only contrary to the genius and temper of the people, but fubverfive of the conftitution; the laws and maxims of which are repugnant to peace and the arts that depend on it. As fyftem and theory

5

have alfo found but little admittance in the Turkish military inftitutions, the power of habit, and that knowledge acquired by actual experience, could alone fupport the force and goodness of their armies; being in this refpect much inferior to their European neighbours; who having brought the art of war into a regular fyitem, keep large bodies of troops in the conftant exercise of that discipline to which they are fubject in the field.

To this long peace may also be attributed that difpofition to revolt which feems at prefent fo prevalent among the Greeks. The terror with which they first regarded their fierce and haughty conquerors, was kept up by feeing them continually in arms, and by being witneffes that the fame courage which firft made them irrefiftable, ftill made them terrible to their moft warlike neighbours. Thefe ideas being worn off, by a long knowledge and acquaintance in the foftnefs and weakness of peace; they now dare to reflect upon the wretchedness of their own condition, and to repine at the oppreffions which they fuffer.

This mal-content temper of the Grecian Chriftians, and the strong attachment which from religious and political principles they bear to the Ruffians, are circumftances much more alarming to the Ottoman empire, than any confequences that could refult from the ill conduct of the laft campaign, or the military prowefs of their enemies. The Greeks are not only numerous, but most of the provincials are fierce and warlike; so that the Turks are indebted to the bigotry and oppreffive difpofition, which fo uniformly difgraced the

councils,

councils, both of the houfe of Auftria and the republic of Venice, for most of their European provinces. The people, from this caufe, generally preferred a fubmiffion to the Mahometan government, (which was favourable enough to them in religious matters, and perhaps not more oppreffive in civil) than to the intolerant principles of their Chriftian neighbours. Now that Ruffia is arrived at great power and dignity, these people look up to her, not only as the preferver of their religion, but as their natural protector, and the restorer of the Greek empire.

Notwithstanding thefe appearances, the Porte is not yet wholly deftitute of resources both in money and men; nor did the Turkish foldiers feem to want their ancient valour in the laft campaign, till the continued ill conduct of their commanders, put an end at once both to hope and to courage. The enemy are also obliged to carry on the operations of war, at a vaft diftance from the fource which fupplies it. To fupport a great army in fuch a fituation, to guard the convoys, and preferve the neceffary communications, must be attended with almoft infuperable difficulties. These will still be increafed in a manifold degree, if the Ruffians attempt to extend the war to the Bulgarian fide of the Danube. Without confidering the doubtful chances of war, and the uncertainty of continuing at all times masters in the field; or without taking into account the favage face of that province, every where interfected by the great branches of mount Hemus, and forming a natural check upon the operations

of great or regular armies; the dangers of advancing into an hoftile country, with fuch a river as the Danube, and fuch an enemy as the Tartars in the rear, are fo obvious as not to require any illuftration.

Those who have talked of the Ruffian's penetrating speedily and eafily to Conftantinople, feem, along with numberlefs other diffi culties, to have overlooked the fituation of Romania, which is fenced by nature with fuch boundaries, as make it nearly impregnable on the land fide. So great an operation would require their being first masters of the Black Sea; nor is it to be supposed that the other European powers would behold with a total indifference, fo great an acceffion of power, to a ftate which they already regard as too formidable.

Such feems to be the fituation and mutual difficulties of the two

great contending powers. In number of troops, in difcipline, in marine, even in pecuniary refources, Ruffia feems much fuperior. The Turks derive their advantages from the difficult nature of their pontic country; from the jealoufy of other European ftates; and from the unfettled state of the throne in Ruffia.

The unhappy country of Poland continues a victim to all the calamities that attend a weak government, and the nearness of too potent neighbours. Plundered alike by friends and foes, without a hope of advantage from the fuccefs of either, her best blood flows in torrents, fhed by unavailing efforts which are only expreffive of her defpair. The cruel manners of the contending nations, add to the hor

[B 3]

rors

10rs of her fituation, which are heightened by national animofity, and the mortal hatred that reciprocal injuries have excited between the Ruffians and Poles.

It is the intereft of all the potent states, that furround this large and once great country, never to fuffer it to emerge out of its prefent wretched fituation. The officious neighbours have too great a regard for its conftitution, to admit the natural phyficians to prefcribe any thing for its benefit. Its original misfortune was the pride and tyranny of the nobles, which prevented them for feveral ages, while it was in their power, from eftablishing a happy form of government. If this had been done, they might have been one of the greatest nations in Europe; they are now the most miferable, and little lefs than a miracle can ever afford another opportunity of making trial of their virtue.

The fuccefs of the Ruffians against the Turks, and the apparent indifference of the other neighbouring powers, muft cut off every fhadow of hope from the confederates. By this means it is probable that the people may enjoy fome quiet, if not fecurity. What would be deemed the greatest misfortune to all other nations, feems to be the greatest happiness that could befal this; to become a province to fome neighbouring power, would at prefent be a bleffing indeed. This, in the natural courfe of things, muit fooner or later happen; and though it should be to the most defpotic of them, which probably will be the cafe, ftill it would be a happy exchange. The Ruffians now appoint a king of Poland as they do a duke of Cour

land, and have just as much right to do one as the other. Can the wretched name of king, the empty title of republic, or the ridiculous pageantry of a court, be thought equivalent to the calamities to which the miferable Poles are every day fubject?

The emperor of Germany, tho' deeply interested in its confequences, has not interfered in the war. His conduct however feems myfterious. His armies are large, compleat, and ready for action; camps are frequently formed in Bohemia and Hungary; the ma, gazines are kept itored, and great bodies of troops lie upon the frontiers. The prefent fituation of the war, being upon the Danube, brings it home to the Auftrian dominions. Many occafions will neceffarily follow of communication and interference, and opportunities must be given of fhewing favour or diflike. A powerful neighbour, fupported by a great military force, and not afraid of either of the warring parties, is almost as troublesome to them, when his territories lie intermingled with thofe in contention, as they are ruinous and deftructive to a weak and defencelefs ftate in the fame fituation. Chance, heat, or danger, neceffa rily occafion a violation of terri tory, and irregular troops will commit exceffes in the most friendly country; all which produce altercations, and often fomething worse.

Nothing could be more oppofite to the intereft of the houfe of

Auftria, nor perhaps fo dangerous to its fecurity, as that Ruffia fhould extend its power on the fide of Turky. Its obtaining any footing near the Danube, would be a cir

cum