that the quarrel is for exclusive privileges in a spot near which the heavenly host proclaimed peace on earth and goodwill towards men-when we see rival Churches contending for mastery in the very place where Christ died for mankind—the thought of such a spectacle is melancholy indeed.1

Lord John had the satisfaction of seeing the Montenegrin question easily settled. The dispute respecting the Churches proved more difficult of solution. It was embittered by the foolish conduct of the Russian Czar, who, in recognising Napoleon III., had the folly to style him Mon cher ami' instead of Monsieur mon frère.' The religious quarrel was in this way supplemented by a personal dispute, and the unfortunate Sultan found himself between two antagonists neither of whom seemed likely to abstain from attacking the other because they could only reach one another through his own weak frame.

Conscious of the grave nature of the crisis which was imminent, Lord John persuaded Lord Stratford de Redcliffe, who was on leave in England, and who offered to resign his mission on the change of Government, to return to Constantinople. No blame can attach to him for so doing. Ninety-nine men out of every hundred of his fellow-countrymen would, in fact, have warmly applauded his decision: and the hundredth man would hardly have foreseen its consequences. Yet the appointment was, in one sense, the most unfortunate circumstance in British history during the present century. It set the Ministry on the slope which led it, at a constantly increasing speed, to the Crimean War.

Lord Aberdeen, indeed, was almost alone in foreseeing some of the consequences of Lord Stratford's appointment.

ARGYLL HOUSE, February 15, 1853.

I think that it will be necessary to be very careful in preparing instructions for Lord Stratford, if, as I presume, we must consider his memorandum as giving an outline of what he would desire.

1 In sending Lord Aberdeen a draft of the despatch, Lord John said, 'I hope you will not think there is too much of the Gospel in it for a Foreign Secretary.'

'The assurances of prompt and effective aid on the approach of danger,' given by us to the Porte, would, in all probability, produce war. These barbarians hate us all, and would be delighted to take their chance of some advantage, by embroiling us with the other powers of Christendom. It may be necessary to give them a moral support, and to endeavour to prolong their existence; but we ought to regard as the greatest misfortune any engagement which compelled us to take up arms for the Turks.

Lord Stratford is not very consistent in his descriptions of the Turkish Government. He refers to their present course of rashness, vacillation, and disorder; and speaks of their maladministration as hopeless. At the same time he looks to their power of carrying into effect a system of internal improvement—particularly in the essential branches of justice, revenue, roads, police, and military defence.

I do not believe that any power, at this time, entertains the intention of overthrowing the Turkish Empire, but it is certainly true that any quarrel might lead to this event; or, as Lord Stratford says, it might take place without such a deliberate intention on the part of any one of these powers.

We ought by all means to keep ourselves perfectly independent, and free to act as circumstances may require. Above all, we ought not to trust the disposal of the Mediterranean fleet—which is peace or war to the discretion of any man,

Before Lord Stratford reached Constantinople, Prince Mentschikoff arrived at the Porte on a special mission from the Czar. His first action, in refusing to call on Fuad Pacha, the Foreign Minister, led to a ministerial crisis in Turkey; and the excitement was such that Colonel Rose-the chargé d'affaires at the Porte-was induced to send for the British fleet. Fortunately the Admiral refused to comply with Colonel Rose's demands without special instructions from home.1 Fortunately, too, Lord Stratford on his arrival was able to settle the dispute about the Churches. But he soon learned that Prince Mentschikoff was the bearer of a much larger demand for the acknowledgment by the Porte of the right

1 Ministers had already so little confidence in Lord Stratford's discretion, that Lord Clarendon wrote to Lord Aberdeen (March 18, 1853), 'One good thing of Rose having sent for the fleet will be that Lord Stratford will wish to be without it.'

of Russia to protect the Greek Church and its members in Turkey. Lord Stratford thought such a demand inadmissible, and urged the Porte to reject it. The Sultan mustered courage to act on his advice, and Prince Mentschikoff and the whole of his suite left Constantinople.

The crisis which had thus occurred brought Russia and Turkey to the brink of war, but it did not apparently necessitate the forcible interference of this country. Except, indeed, for the single consideration that the Porte had acted on the advice of Lord Stratford, and that the Ministry had approved its Ambassador's counsel, it was difficult to see how any British interest could be affected by the claim of Russia to protect the members of the Greek Church who were subject to the Sultan. No doubt the warlike measures to which Prince Mentschikoff's departure pointed affected England a little more closely. The first cannon shot seemed not unlikely to shiver the frail fragments of Ottoman rule; and the Ministry was aware, from the famous conversation which Sir George Seymour had had with the Czar, that his Imperial Majesty already contemplated the partition of the Turkish Empire. The Czar's intentions, however, made much less impression on the minds of Lord Aberdeen and his colleagues than they produced-when published at a later date on the British people. They made little impression on Lord Aberdeen, because eight years before the Czar had addressed him in similar language; and Lord Aberdeen had recorded his remarks without protest in the Foreign Office. They made little impression on Lord John because Sir George Seymour, in reporting them, had privately told him that he believed the Emperor on the whole to be in favour of maintaining the existing order or disorder in Turkey.

At that time there were two courses by which peace might in all probability have been preserved. The Ministry might have said to the Porte, 'If war ensue, England will be no party to it.' Such language, used plainly and without reservation, would probably have forced the Sultan to make terms with Russia. Or, again, it might have said to the Czar, 'If war

ensue, England will at once range herself as Turkey's ally.' Such language would, in all probability, have induced the Emperor to pause. If Lord Aberdeen had been supreme in the Cabinet, he would perhaps have taken the first of these courses; if Lord John and Lord Palmerston had been uncontrolled, they would have taken the second of them. But, while the presence of Lord John and Lord Palmerston made it impossible for Lord Aberdeen to take the one course, the presence of Lord Aberdeen made it impracticable for Lord John and Lord Palmerston to take the other. It resulted, therefore, that the Ministry, as a whole, had no firm mind on the matter; and, while the ship of State was drifting without clear direction, the tiller was grasped by Lord Stratford, and the vessel steered into the whirlpool of war.

If the Ministry, as a whole, spoke with an uncertain voice, there was no doubt about Lord John's opinions. Writing to Lord Clarendon, on the 20th of March, he said

The Emperor of Russia is clearly bent on accomplishing the destruction of Turkey, and he must be resisted.

While, in a second letter on the same day, he wrote—

The vast preparations at Sebastopol show a foregone purpose, and that purpose is, I fear, to extinguish the Turkish Empire. In case I am right in this conjecture the crisis is very serious. My own opinion is that, in case of the invasion of Turkey by Russia on any pretence, we ought to send a messenger to Petersburg, and demand the evacuation of the Turkish territory, and, in case of refusal, to enforce this demand both in the Baltic as well as in the Dardanelles.

We should of course enter into concert with France.

When news reached London that Prince Mentschikoff had withdrawn from Constantinople, Lord John declared on May 31, writing to the same correspondent, that it was

absolutely necessary that the fleet at Malta should go at once to Vourla, and that orders for this purpose should go to-night or tomorrow at latest.

And three weeks later, while the Cabinet was still drifting,

Lord John made a serious effort to give point and precision to British policy. In a long memorandum, he endeavoured to forecast the future and to prepare for it. Thus he wrote:

On the whole, supposing peace not to be made during the Russian occupation of the Principalities, three separate stages of suspense and conflict appear to be approaching.

1. While Russia holds the Principalities, and persists in her present demand.

2. While Russia, having invaded Turkey, is marching on Constantinople.

3. When Russia, having taken Constantinople, is setting forth terms of peace, distinguished by 'moderation.'

Our policy in the first case is already decided on.

...

In the second stage we must, I conceive, aid the Sultan in defending his capital and his throne.

In the third stage we must be prepared to make war on Russia herself. In that contest we ought to seek the alliance of France and Austria. France would willingly join; and England and France together might, if it were worth while, obtain the moral weight, if not the material influence, of Austria in their favour. It is not necessary to point out how this might be done.

June 19, 1853.

J. RUSSELL.

Right or wrong, Lord John had evidently a policy, and was prepared to act on it. His memorandum had the effect of eliciting the opinions of the five most important members of the Cabinet. Lord Clarendon simply expressed his concurrence with Lord John both as to the 'stages' that were approaching and the modes of dealing with them. Lord Lansdowne considered that any further invasion of Turkey by Russia should be regarded as a ground for war by England and France; that this opinion should at once be intimated to Russia, and that Russia should at the same time be informed that, in the event of any catastrophe, England would consider the Greek nation the natural heir of the Mahommedan power. Such an intimation, he thought, would make Russia pause a good while before it ventured on move the second. Sir James Graham was inclined very much to agree with Lord Lansdowne, but, at the same time, thought it undesirable to decide